One Man Army: why Manchester City and Arsenal cannot afford to allow their South American soldiers to fall

Sergio Agüero and Alexis Sánchez seem to be doing the brunt of the work, but both City and Arsenal need their strikers free from injury if they are to keep climbing the table.

Agüero and Sánchez set to start tomorrow Photograph: Graphic: Sky Sports

Another game, another goal. This has been the recurring theme for Agüero and Sánchez for weeks now, as both forwards have picked up the slack left by the incompetence or injury of their teammates. The expectations of Man City and Arsenal at the beginning of the season have been upheld only through the ruthless brilliance of the two danger men from South America, and both teams need them fit and firing now more than ever. The fact that Arsenal and Man City’s squads are plagued with injury, combined with Chelsea’s unstoppable form and the demanding Christmas schedule, means that neither side can afford an injury to their top goal scorer if they are to realistically challenge for the title. 

Even at this point, only a third of the way through the season, if it were not for the 19 goals of Agüero, City would be all but out of their Champions League group and worryingly far from Chelsea in the table. Take away Sánchez’s total of 13 goals and Arsenal would be tussling with the likes of Aston Villa and Everton for a place in the top half of the table. Not only this, but Wenger would be facing a bona fide coup rather than a relatively mild banner of discontent seen in the stands. 

The reason why both teams have consistently struggled this year is the same reason why both teams cannot afford Agüero or Sánchez to suffer a dip in form or, worse still, an injury. The lack of form or fitness of many key players has resulted in both the South Americans often carrying their teams to victory. Although Everton and Stoke City will be keeping an eye on the two deadly forwards tomorrow, when City welcome the Toffees and Arsenal visit the Britannia Stadium, best believe Pellegrini and Wenger will be too, albeit for different reasons.

Agüero and Sánchez have been impressively consistent this season. Photograph: Squawka

Agüero’s hat-trick against Bayern Munich ten days ago seems to have reinvigorated City. Having scored 10 goals in their last 3 matches, half of which have come from the little Argentinian, Man City appear more confident on the pitch. Their most recent performance in the Premier League, against Sunderland midweek, was their most convincing of the season. Unsurprisingly, Agüero hammered in two in that match, which now makes it 14 goals in 14 Premier League games this season for him. However, both he and Man City must err on side of caution due to the number of injuries in the side and the heavy winter schedule underway. With Yaya Touré unfit for tomorrow’s clash with Everton, and David Silva, Stevan Jovetic and Vincent Kompany still out through injury, City once again will be looking to their deadly front man for inspiration. Pellegrini must be careful of overusing Agüero though. The striker will face an Everton side determined to bounce back from their disappointing defeat against Hull City and, by this time tomorrow, he will have already played 20 matches in all competitions this season. If City are to stay within reach of Chelsea, Agüero needs to stay fit and on form. Samir Nasri’s impressive performances of late should help lighten the attacking load, whilst City’s medical staff and physios will be doing their upmost to keep Agüero off the injury table. City will also need their makeshift centre back pairing to perform too, as Dedryck Boyata and Martín Demichelis at times struggled against Hull’s attack. With the prospect of battling against in-form Romelu Lukaku, it will be interesting to see whether Pellegrini opts for Eliaquim Mangala, Boyata or even Bacary Sagna to partner Demichelis at centre-half.

Agüero will look to make it 15 goals in 13 PL games tomorrow Photograph: Infographic: WhoScored

Provided Agüero does not sustain an injury against Everton, he will most certainly start in City’s must-win game against Roma on Wednesday too. Even though Kompany may be in the squad and Touré will have gained some fitness in time for their trip to Rome, City face another challenging game that requires Agüero to lead the charge yet again. If City intend to hold on to second spot in the table and be in the pot for the last 16 of the Champions League, he must continue to find the net.

Arsenal’s story reads akin to that of City’s this season, as they have been reliant on their own prolific pint-sized forward. With Chelsea seemingly out of reach now, Arsenal remain optimistic of finishing in their usual top four spot this year thanks to the heroics of Alexis Sánchez. Like City, Arsenal’s most recent win in Europe against Borussia Dortmund at home looks to have reinstalled some much-needed belief in the Gunners’ dressing room. Since then, Arsenal have recorded 3 clean sheets in as many matches (helped by the reintroduction of Laurent Koscielny at centre back) and Sánchez has added another goal to his already impressive tally of 13 for the season.

Arsenal, similar to Man City once more, have suffered many injuries, and have been saved time and again by their Chilean workhorse. Not only have they encountered problems in defence (at times fielding Nacho Monreal and Calum Chambers at centre-back) but also in the attacking third. Mikel Arteta, Aaron Ramsey, Jack Wilshere, Mesut Özil, Olivier Giroud, and Theo Walcott have all been out injured at some point this year. Though the absence of all these players may seem to allow Sánchez to shine, the lack of playmaking talent such as Özil only goes to emphasise his truly incredible and vital form this season. If his work rate or goals were not impressive enough, the fact that Sánchez has been directly involved in 50% of all of Arsenal’s goals this season should underline his importance to the London side.

Sánchez has been Arsenal's star man this year with 9 PL goals Photograph: Infographic: WhoScored

His attacking prowess will be firmly tested tomorrow against a physically imposing Stoke City though. As Wenger still expects a finish of at least 4^th at the end of the season, and having witnessed the injuries that come from a clash against Stoke, Wenger will hope his main man will help his side to victory whilst steering clear of any potentially risky challenges. What’s more, this game comes only a few days after Wenger declared his caution over Sanchez’s fitness, saying that “he is in the red zone” and with supreme athletes like Sánchez “you never know how far you can push it”. Sanchez has already played 27 games this season and, considering Arsenal’s injury record, Wenger must keep him wrapped in cotton wool if Arsenal are to achieve this season’s aims.

Even though City and Arsenal are glad to see Agüero and Sánchez doing so well, they need them to stay fit and would like some more contribution from rest of the team. The underwhelming season so far from key players last year like Touré and Ramsey have undoubtedly contributed to the reliance on Agüero and Sánchez’s superhuman efforts. It is hard to imagine, though, that the front-runners for player of the year are not enjoying their run of form. Although City and Arsenal would prefer to not so heavily rely on both players, Agüero and Sánchez would not have it any other way.

Will superlative Southampton pass the tough two month test that awaits?

Ronald Koeman’s Southampton have been excellent so far this season, but they will have their top four credentials truly tested over the next two months. 

Real test begins now for Southampton

In the build up to Southampton’s clash with Manchester City this Sunday, there have been a number of articles discussing whether Ronald Koeman’s side can continue their fantastic form in the coming months in the face of a difficult run of fixtures. Most recently, Jeremy Wilson declared Southampton the ‘Barcelona’ of the Premier League. Although we should clearly consider this with a pinch of salt, his claims are not unsubstantiated. Like their Spanish counterparts, Ronald Koeman’s side sits in second place in the league. Despite losing 13 players in the summer, of whom five were first team regulars, Southampton seem to have improved on last year’s stellar season under Pochettino.

As Jeremy Wilson outlines, the structure and organization already in place at the club made what could have been a difficult transition incredibly smooth. Add to this the combination of a brilliant recruitment system and Ronald Koeman’s vast knowledge of the Dutch League, and it is easy to see why Southampton now boast a group of players that are arguably better than the ones they had last season. Indeed, considering the opening quarter of the season, the likes of Dusan Tadic and Graziano Pelle look set to improve on the attacking standards set by Ricky Lambert and Adam Lallana last season. Statistically, Southampton also have the best defence in the league. Conceding just six goals and keeping seven clean sheets in their first 12 games, signings such as Ryan Bertrand and Toby Alderweireld have more than played their part in Southampton’s push up the table since their arrival. Compare these facts with Southampton’s 8^th place finish last season and it is easy to understand why pundits and supporters alike are dreaming of Champions League football for Southampton. But whilst they have undoubtedly been a breath of fresh air so far this season, is it not a little premature to talk of Champions League football when only 12 games have been played? Just how realistic are Southampton’s chances of claiming that coveted fourth spot?  

At the moment, the answer is that we simply don’t know yet. This is not an attempt to diminish Southampton’s good performances so far this season. After all, you can only beat what is put in front of you. But until Southampton play against the top sides, any predictions of finishing in the top four are perhaps premature.

A look back at the results in the opening quarter of last season sheds some light as to why Southampton fans should be cautious. Up until this point of the 2013/14 season, Mauricio Pochettino’s Southampton had played only Liverpool from the clubs who finished the season inside the top 6 and had collected 22 points from teams who would eventually finish 8^th and below. Parallel to Pochettino’s Southampton last season, Ronald Koeman inherited a very similar set of fixtures this season, and up until now has played only Liverpool and Tottenham from the teams who finished inside last season’s top 6. Koeman’s men have played one extra game this season and amassed 26 points. Interestingly, after 11 games they had collected just three more points than Pochettino’s men in the previous season. There are of course some significant differences here; Southampton have been better both defensively and going forward this year, and sit higher in the league than they did under Pochettino at this stage of last season. However, in spite of Southampton’s improvements this season, it is interesting to note that the two managers started each season in a relatively similar manner.

Many seem to regard the Southampton team of this season as much more successful than last season because Pochettino’s side ultimately finished 8^th. Put simply, people have forgotten about how well they started last season and instead focus on the poor run of form between November and January; a period of eleven games in which Southampton played against four of the sides that would finish in the top six places; Arsenal, Chelsea twice, Manchester City and Everton. They collected just one point from all their matches against these sides, and nine points in the five games against teams that were to finish outside of the top 6. This season, beginning on Sunday and ending on Saturday February 7^th, Ronald Koeman’s side have a run of 12 games that very much echoes the difficult run of fixtures Southampton had this time last year. They will face Arsenal twice, Manchester United twice, and Everton and Manchester City once. They also travel to Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea three days after Boxing Day;

“Saints play Chelsea on 28 December and after that point, they will have a better idea of where they will realistically finish this season. It's a tough run of games up until (then) for them with City, Arsenal and Manchester United to play in the space of eight days” -  Matt Le Tissier speaking after the 1-1 draw with Aston Villa

This is a run of fixtures far more difficult than Koeman's opening 12 games and it is clear why Matt Le Tissier is urging caution. Southampton have been here before and for all their talent and ability, we can only more accurately speculate about just how good they are until they are tested against the best sides in the country. Their achievements so far this season have been impressive, but any talk of a Champions League place should be put on hold until well after Christmas. This a great time to be a Southampton supporter and the very fact they are being mentioned in the same sentence as clubs from England’s elite is a testament to how far they have come.

Whilst it is refreshing to see a side breaking up the traditional top four, can we call them the English Barcelona? The turn of the New Year should provide us with an answer.

Derby della moribund Madonnina

Mancini’s arrival heightens enthusiasm for a derby increasingly reliant on its illustrious history. 

Roberto Mancini faces a difficult start following his second appointment as the coach of Inter

                There was a time not so long ago when the world’s best players would do battle in the showpiece event of Italian football. Milan and Inter, constant stalwarts both at home and in Europe, would captivate the planet with their world-class players. Today the derby arguably reflects the state of Serie A more generally; both Inter and Milan are no longer exponents of elite European football and currently find themselves 9^th and 7^th respectively. Nonetheless, after modest starts both teams still harbour genuine Champions League ambitions, and with Roberto Mancini back as head coach of Inter, he will be looking to leapfrog his neighbours in the table.

               Two extremely poor performances against Parma and Hellas Verona was enough for Inter’s president Eric Thohir to finally lose patience with Walter Mazzari. The sacking is an interesting one. At times Inter have been woeful this season. Mazzari’s refusal to start matches with anything other than a 3-5-2 for example, made his team become far too predictable.  Yet throughout his reign, Inter’s performances have been littered with individual errors that are hard to place at just the manager’s door - these mistakes have been such a common occurrence this season that both Mauro Icardi and Juan Jesus have blamed Mazzari’s sacking on the players ahead of anyone else - thus begging the question as to whether Mancini will do any better with the same group of players at his disposal. In any case, the appointment of Mancini is a popular one amongst Inter fans. During Mazzari’s penultimate game for example – a 2-0 defeat away at Parma - Inter supporters unveiled a banner asking for their former manager to come home. Though Mancini has not been presented with the easiest of starts, facing both Milan and Roma in his first two games, Thohir may have timed Mancini’s appointment to perfection. Inter’s president clearly realises that there are quality players at Inter, and a Champions League spot would still be attainable if Mancini can steady the ship quickly, beginning with their match against Milan tomorrow.

            It is expected that Mancini will revert to a back four, a defensive tactic he has used often throughout his managerial career. Ranocchia, who has been in good form this season, should partner Juan at centre back, with Nemanja Vidic most likely to miss out from the back three that played against Verona. Problems may arise however at full back for Mancini. Though Nagatomo and Dodo (both of whom are considered specialist wing backs) were bought solely to fit in to Mazzari’s 3-5-2, Mancini’s hands are tied due to the absence of D’Ambrosini and Campagnaro through injury. Nagatomo and Dodo’s propensity to play slightly higher and wider will leave space next to the centre backs for Milan to exploit, and this could tempt Inzaghi in to start Torres. A natural number 9 and eager to impress, Torres will look to utilise any space in between and behind Inter’s back four.

Historically Mancini teams are associated with a 4-2-3-1 formation, but he can be flexible (just consider his 3-5-2 at Galatasaray) and his comments regarding Mateo Kovacic suggest that he will play a 4-3-1-2, allowing Kovacic to play as a number ten. Consequently, Inter fans can expect to see most of the play coming through Kovacic who Mancini claims is Inters most talented player. Mancini has already encouraged Inter to move the ball quicker during transition and so he is likely to pack the midfield with athleticism and power; Freddy Guarin, Yann M’Vila and ZdavkoKuzmanovic may provide the drive and dynamism needed to attack at speed andstart Mancini’s second reign in style. The most likely starters up front are Icardi and Palacio, with Danny Osvaldo starting from the bench. Whilst Icardi has been in good form this season, scoring 7 in 10 Serie A games, Palacio has struggled for form and is yet to score. There is an argument to play Osvaldo who, despite playing an intermittent role this season due to injury, is more athletic and combative than Palacio. Even though Osvaldo seems to suit Mancini’s preference of power and dynamism, Palacio’s unselfish work ethic should see him earn a starting berth come Sunday.

Mateo Kovacic is expected to blossom under the tutelage of Roberto Mancini

What is fascinating about this derby is that both teams are in a similar state of flux. Pippo Inzaghi’s Milan have been equally inconsistent of late and go into the derby in danger of extinguishing any early season excitement. Milan started the season well, winning their first two games, scoring plenty of goals and playing with an enthusiasm that had been absent under both Max Allegri and Clarence Seedorf. But old habits die hard, and despite Inzaghi’s attempts to recruit honest players into the Rossoneri squad, there are signs that Milan are slipping towards the standards of last season. Injuries have not been kind to them – Inzaghi has had to field eleven different starting teams already this season – and whilst they possess talent going forwards – Milan were the highest scorers in Serie A until Juventus’ 7-0 demolition of Parma two weeks ago - there is concern defensively. Milan are now expected to go into the derby without Alex, who suffered a thigh strain in training on Friday, but will be boosted by the return to the squad of Riccardo Montolivo, who broke his tibia last season. With Ignacio Abate potentially out as well, Milan look short at the back and Inter should be able to make the most of this. This defensive fragility may be further worsened by the potential loss of Nigel De Jong, who will face a late fitness test on Sunday.
Irrespective of De Jong’s fitness, Inzaghi is expected to go with a 4-3-2-1. Michael Essien (on the presumption that De Jong is not fit) and Sulley Muntari are likely to sit in front of the back four with the job of restricting ball supply into Inter’s Kovacic. In front of these two we will probably see Bonaventura from the right, El-Shawaary from the left and Menez through the middle, with Torres on his own up front. This system would allow Inzaghi to play a recognised number 9 who will look to stretch Inter’s back four. There are goals here for Milan. El-Shawaary has shown glimpses of the brilliant form he was in not so long ago, scoring a great goal against Sampdoria in the lead up to the international break and playing equally as well when he came on for Italy against Croatia a week later. Whilst on their day attacking talent such as Jeremy Menez, Keizuke Honda and Giacomo Bonaventura, are more than capable of opening up a defence that has been as leaky as Inter’s this season.

               
           This has the makings of an intriguing derby, not least because both teams possess attacking talent that is far greater than the defensive talent on show. Moreover, whilst the match may not currently showcase the quality seen in bygone times, there are players on both sides that have the potential to develop into world-class players. In truth there is not a great deal to choose between the two teams and the result could go either way. However the potential for Milan to lose Alex, Abate and De Jong will not fill Milan fans with confidence and considering the surge of excitement that so often comes with the appointment of a new manager, I expect to see Inter run out winners. Just.

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